“Who Will Be the Next Pope”

While opinion polls, journalists and pundits are where we traditionally turn to for predicting such historical outcomes as the next pontiff, some believe that online betting sites might be a better place to look. If you want proof of their accuracy, just look at the online betting that took place during the Bush-Kerry presidential race. In these wagers, Bush was leading all the way – a good sign of the predictive power of “novelties” wagering events.

Some sites, such as BetFair, operate as a betting exchange where players can bet against each other. Most of BetFair’s business is horseracing but betting on the outcome of the papacy is a special market.

Indeed, it’s a special market for many of the online betting sites. Pinnaclesports.com, for example, allows players to bet on not only who will be the next pope but also on his age, nationality, and the number of days it will take to pick him.

Up until now, U.S. bookmakers at casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City have not been placing wagers on who will be the next pontiff, perhaps reflecting the fact that virtually no American Cardinals are in the running. Ireland’s Cardinal, Dougal Maguire, however, doesn’t have a chance either, but this hasn’t stopped the Irish from placing their wagers on who will be the next Pope. At Paddypwer.com, Italy’s Dionigi Tettamanzi is the favored Cardinal, corresponding with most polls which say that Tettamanzi is anywhere from a 9 to 2 to an 11 to 4 odds on favorite to win.

The next Cardinals, in order of betting are Francis Arinze of Nigeria with a 15 to 2 rating, O. Rodiguez Maradiaga of Honduras with an 8 to 1 rating, Claudio Hummes of Brazil also with an 8 to 1 rating, and J. Ratizinger of Germany with a 29 to 1 rating.

With so many Cardinals in the running, betting on who the next pontiff will be is quickly gaining ground. While BetFair has been accepting wagers on the next Pope for the last 18 months, only recently has there been serious activity. BetFair estimates approximately $70,000 has been wagered so far and interest is growing.